MediaWiki API result
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{
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"fromid": 1,
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"fromtitle": "Main Page",
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"totitle": "Black Swan",
"*": "<tr><td colspan=\"2\" class=\"diff-lineno\" id=\"mw-diff-left-l1\" >Line 1:</td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" class=\"diff-lineno\">Line 1:</td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\"><strong>MediaWiki has been installed.<</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">strong></del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">== Chapter 10 </ins>/ <ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">The scandal of prediction ==</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td class='diff-context'></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td class='diff-context'></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Consult the [https://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Special:MyLanguage/Help:Contents User</del>'<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">s Guide] for information on using the wiki software.</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div>'<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">''\u0424\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u0443\u043c\u0435\u044e\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0442\u044c'''</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td class='diff-context'></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td class='diff-context'></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">== Getting started ==</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">This refers to scientific paper by Jean Philippe Bouchaud, </ins>[https://<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">pdfs</ins>.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">semanticscholar</ins>.org/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">55f4</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">7f02cef130f746091e0b14fdf63192cec755.pdf Experts\u2019 earning forecasts</ins>: <ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">bias,herding and gossamer information</ins>]<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">.</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">* </del>[https://<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">www</del>.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mediawiki</del>.org/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wiki</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Special</del>:<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">MyLanguage/Manual:Configuration_settings Configuration settings list</del>]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">* </del>[https://<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">www</del>.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mediawiki</del>.org/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wiki</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Special</del>:<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">MyLanguage</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Manual</del>:<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">FAQ MediaWiki FAQ</del>]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">> He surprised me with a research paper that a summer intern had just finished under his supervision and that had just been accepted for publication; it scrutinized two thousand predictions by security analysts. What it showed was that these brokerage-house analysts predicted nothing\u2014a na\u00efve forecast made by someone who takes the figures from one period as predictors of the next would not do markedly worse.</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">* [</del>https://<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">lists</del>.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wikimedia</del>.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">org</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mailman</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">listinfo</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mediawiki</del>-<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">announce MediaWiki release mailing list</del>]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">* [</del>https://www.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mediawiki</del>.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">org</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wiki</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Special:MyLanguage</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Localisation#Translation_resources Localise MediaWiki for your language]</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td class='diff-marker'>\u2212</td><td class='diff-deletedline'><div><del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">* </del>[https://www.<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mediawiki</del>.org/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wiki</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Special:MyLanguage</del>/<del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Manual:Combating_spam Learn how </del>to <del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">combat spam on </del>your <del class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wiki]</del></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">'''\u0418\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0430\u044f \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u0442\u043e\u043a\u0441\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0430'''</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">This refers to scientific paper </ins>[<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Overconfidence in case-study judgements](</ins>https://<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">psycnet</ins>.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">apa</ins>.org/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">record</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">1965-12467-001).</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">>  In 1965, Stuart Oskamp supplied clinical psychologists with successive files, each containing an increasing amount of information about patients; the psychologists\u2019 diagnostic abilities did not grow with the additional supply of information. They just got more confident in their original diagnosis. Granted, one may not expect too much of psychologists of the 1965 variety, but these findings seem to hold across disciplines.</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">'''\u0424\u0435\u0439\u043a\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0442\u044b, \u043a\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0431\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043a\u0430 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u0432'''</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">This refers to scientific paper [Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics](https</ins>:/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">/www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/074959789290064E).</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">>  The psychologist James Shanteau undertook the task of finding out which disciplines have experts and which have none.</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">This refers to scientific paper [The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods</ins>: <ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Results of a forecasting competition</ins>]<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">(</ins>https://<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">onlinelibrary</ins>.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">wiley</ins>.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">com</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">doi</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">abs</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">10.1002/for.3980010202) and [The M3</ins>-<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Competition: results, conclusions and implications</ins>]<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">(</ins>https://www.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">sciencedirect</ins>.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">com/science</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">article</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">pii</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">S0169207000000571).</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">> The most interesting test of how academic methods fare in the real world was run by Spyros Makridakis, who spent part of his career managing competitions between forecasters who practice a \u201cscientific method\u201d called econometrics\u2014an approach that combines economic theory with statistical measurements. Simply put, he made people forecast in real life and then he judged their accuracy. This led to the series of \u201cM-Competitions\u201d he ran, with assistance from Michele Hibon, of which M3 was the third and most recent one, completed in 1999. Makridakis and Hibon reached the sad conclusion that \u201cstatistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones.\u201d</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">'''\u041d\u043e\u0431\u0435\u043b\u0435\u0432\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u043f\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0438\u044f \u0437\u0430 \u043c\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044c GARCH, \u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0439 \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0442\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0430'''</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div>[<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Bio of Robert Eggel](</ins>https://www.<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">nobelprize</ins>.org/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">prizes</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">economic-sciences/2003/engle/biographical</ins>/<ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">) in Nobel Prize.</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">> The econometrician Robert Engel, an otherwise charming gentleman, invented a very complicated statistical method called GARCH and got a Nobel for it. No one tested it to see if it has any validity in real life. Simpler, less sexy methods fare exceedingly better, but they do not take you </ins>to <ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">Stockholm.</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">'''\u042d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0441 - \u0431\u0430\u0448\u043d\u044f \u0438\u0437 \u0441\u043b\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438'''</ins></div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div> </div></td></tr>\n<tr><td colspan=\"2\"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td class='diff-addedline'><div><ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">> Economics is the most insular of fields; it is the one that quotes least from outside itself! Economics is perhaps the subject that currently has the highest number of philistine scholars\u2014scholarship without erudition and natural curiosity can close </ins>your <ins class=\"diffchange diffchange-inline\">mind and lead to the fragmentation of disciplines.</ins></div></td></tr>\n"
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